We will use the latest climate projections for the UK (UKCP18) from very high resolution climate models and couple these to new, high-resolution flood models for small rapid response catchments, like Boscastle, or urban areas that suffer from flash floods. Together they will be used to update guidance for urban drainage design and methods for urban surface water flood risk assessment in the UK: priorities identified in the National Flood Resilience Review (2016) and restated in the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report, which identified “more action is needed to deliver sustainable drainage systems, upgrade sewers where appropriate and tackle drivers increasing surface runoff (e.g. impermeable surfacing in urban areas).”
This will include new ‘uplifts’ that can be applied to design storm events to represent climate change effects on storms and recommendations on the updates of existing methods and tools used to tackle surface water flooding. (See: Guidance for Water and Sewerage Companies and Flood Risk Authorities: Recommended uplifts for applying to design storms.)
UKCP18 represent the daily cycle of rainfall, and rainfall characteristics like intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence, much better than coarser resolution models that have been used previously and can help us to understand how short-duration intense rainfall events and flash floods might change in the future. Here we propose to couple them, for the first time, with new, high-resolution flood models for small rapid response catchments, like Boscastle, or urban areas that suffer from flash floods. Together they will be used to update guidance for urban drainage design and methods for urban surface water flood risk assessment in the UK. This will include new ‘uplifts’ that can be applied to design storm events to represent climate change effects on storms and recommendations on the updates of existing methods and tools used to tackle surface water flooding.
Project outputs
Publications:
- Xilin, X. et al. 2019. A full-scale fluvial flood modelling framework based on a high-performance integrated hydrodynamic modelling system (HiPIMS). Advances in Water Resources. 132.
- Li, Q. et al. 2020. A novel 1D-2D coupled model for hydrodynamic simulation of flows in drainage networks. Advances in Water Resources. 137.
- Dale Murray. 2021. Managing the effects of extreme sub-daily rainfall and flash floods—a practitioner’s perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190550.
- , , , et al. 2020. Real-time flood forecasting based on a high-performance 2-D hydrodynamic model and numerical weather predictions. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR025583.
- Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548
- Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
- Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
- Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219
- Chan, S.C., Kendon, E.J., Fowler, H.J., Youngman, B.D., Dale, M., Short, C. (2023) New extreme rainfall projections for improved climate resilience of urban drainage systems, Climate Services, Volume 30
Guidance:
- Guidance for Water and Sewerage Companies and Flood Risk Management Authorities: Recommended uplifts for applying to design storms. Prepared by Murray Dale, JBA Consulting. Reviewed by and with contributions from: Prof Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University, Prof Lizzie Kendon, Met Office, and Dr Steven Chan, Newcastle University. (See News story)
Events:
- UK Climate Resilience webinar, 24 June 2020: FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage with Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University (Project PI) and Murray Dale, Technical Director and Chartered Meteorologist, JBA. Watch Part 1, part 2, part 3 and part 4.